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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 94.7%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 5.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 94.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 4.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 73.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22.3%.Haitong Securities: The moderate price reduction of traditional Chinese medicine varieties continues. The domestic pharmaceutical industry is expected to set off a wave of mergers and acquisitions. Haitong Securities released a research report saying that the moderate price reduction of traditional Chinese medicine varieties continues. In 2024, the traditional Chinese medicine industry was under pressure due to the pressure of pharmacy terminal sales and inventory pressure, and it is expected to return to a good situation in the next 25 years. In addition, the continuous technological changes in the pharmaceutical industry, the development of IPO to mergers and acquisitions and the promotion of corporate governance optimization at the shareholder level are the main reasons for promoting mergers and acquisitions in the industry. In terms of fields, mergers and acquisitions are expected to occur intensively in sub-sectors such as medical devices, Chinese medicine, medical services, blood products and scientific research services.The Ukrainian Foreign Minister once again asked the West to urgently provide 20 sets of air defense systems to Kiev. In the context of the attack on Ukrainian facilities, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga reminded the West that it is necessary to urgently provide 20 sets of air defense systems to Ukraine.

US Congressman French Hill will take over as the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. On December 12, local time, the reporter learned that French Hill, a Republican congressman and former banker from Arkansas, will be the next chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. The Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives is an important body of the US Congress, which is responsible for supervising the financial industry and formulating relevant legislation. Its responsibilities cover banking, the overall financial system and the cryptocurrency market. Hill will succeed retiring Patrick Patrick McHenry, whose formal appointment is expected to be approved by the Republican Party in the next few days. (CCTV)Guotai Junan: The liquor sector is determined to be ahead of growth, paying attention to the trend of price approval and the orientation of head liquor enterprises. Guotai Junan said that the liquor reporting end began to enter a downward period in 2024Q2, and the bottom shock is expected in 2025H1. Sales are slowing down, inventory is passively rising, and the approval price is expected to be relatively weak. The Spring Festival in 2025 will experience a stress test period. In terms of price, real estate liquor > high-end > secondary high-end. After this round of adjustment, real estate liquor is expected to recover first, followed by high-end liquor, and the secondary high-end liquor is expected to recover for a long period.Seiko Technology: It has cooperated with a number of aerospace (low-altitude) enterprises. Seiko Technology (002006) recently said in an institutional survey that the company has cooperated with aerospace (low-altitude) enterprises such as Yiweite, Jieyi Technology and Shenzhen Collaborative Innovation to expand the application of new carbon fiber composite materials and vigorously develop low-altitude economic industries. In the future, the company will continue to deepen, consolidate and iterate the advantages of independent innovation and intelligent manufacturing of carbon fiber equipment in the whole industrial chain, enter the production of carbon fiber composite products as soon as possible by improving the company's precision processing ability and cooperating with enterprises with mature technologies, and vigorously develop the aerospace economic industry, compete for new tracks and build new engines through the brand-new development model of "equipment leading, material collaboration and application support".

"Shanghai housing subsidy is 300,000 yuan" and "down payment is 20,000 yuan to buy 1.8 million hardcover existing houses"? Rumor has come. Recently, there have been a number of housing advertisements on the short video platform. The agent who released the housing claimed that he could receive the "housing subsidy" when buying a house in Shanghai, with the amount ranging from 200,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan. An intermediary declared: "Shanghai Songjiang New Town has a total price of 760,000 yuan and a housing subsidy of 250,000 yuan." "After receiving the subsidy, you can buy a 78-square-meter house with a down payment of 50,000 yuan." There is also an intermediary who claims: "The minimum payment can be only 20,000 yuan, and you can buy a finely decorated existing house with a total price of 1.8 million yuan." The reporter consulted a number of intermediaries and learned that the so-called "purchase subsidies" appearing in short videos are not government subsidies, but gimmicks. When the house-watchers consult subsidies on the spot, different intermediaries will have different calibers. Usually, there are three routines-one is to raise the price first and then lower the price. Second, the so-called "subsidy" is actually that developers lend money to buyers to pay down payment, and buyers have to pay interest. Third, the commission returned by the intermediary to the buyers is packaged as a "subsidy". (Shanghai rumor platform)The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue the gale blue warning at 06: 00 on December 13th. It is estimated that there will be 5 winds and gusts of 6-8 in parts of central and eastern Inner Mongolia, northwestern Shanxi, northern Hebei, central Henan and southwestern Shandong from 08: 00 on December 13th to 08: 00 on December 14th. Most of the Yellow Sea, most of the East China Sea, Taiwan Province Strait, east of Taiwan Province, bashi channel, northern and central South China Sea, and Beibu Gulf will have strong winds of 7-8 grades and gusts of 9 grades.Shanghai's "trade-in" has driven consumption to exceed 10 billion yuan. According to the statistics of Shanghai Jiaodian Household Appliances Business Association, as of December 11, Shanghai's household appliances consumption subsidy activities have achieved remarkable results, and the number of people participating in the trade-in of household appliances in Shanghai has exceeded 3.57 million. The sales of eight categories of household appliances, including air conditioners, computers and refrigerators, covered by the state subsidy increased by 30%-40% year-on-year. During the implementation of the policy, the cumulative amount of subsidies reached 1.165 billion yuan, and the consumption of household appliances and household products by all platforms exceeded 10 billion yuan. (Liberation Daily)